Friday, June 17, 2011

Moneyball the Movie and Fixing the MLB Cellar Dwellers According to Me... and the Reds

How to fix Major League Baseball teams like the Houston Astros, Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics, according to Matt Siegel. Today's post is inspired by the release of the trailer for Moneyball the movie. Check it out at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiAHlZVgXjk&feature=player_embedded 

The trailer looks entertaining but one big qualm right up front... Brad Pitt as Billy Beane? Uh can someone say reach? Jonah Hill as his right hand man Peter Brand is a better fit. I listened to the book Moneyball on one of my father and I's baseball road trips. Upon listening to it I was immediately full of questions and badgered my father the rest of the trip about how on-base percentage was so important and why other teams hadn't replicated Beane's recipe successfully? The answers were interesting to hear, mostly because he had to really think, why hadn't other teams done this? The best answer was two part, one because other teams had more money than Oakland did and two, that scouts were usually hard set in their ways after doing the same thing for over a hundred years. 

So why is Oakland still on the list I stated at the beginning of the post if everyone is crediting Beane with this revolutionary idea that inspired a book and a movie? Because times have changed and while his ideas WERE revolutionary, they have become outdated in this new world of sabermetrics. So how do we catch up from Beane's Moneyball ideas to today? A few teams have figured it out like the Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds to name a few. Sure none of these teams are in first place in their division but they still are successful just in a different way. These clubs have gained wins and popularity amongst fans over the last 2-3 years and they did it the same way, by building from the ground up. Growing up the Indians were really good with the likes of Jim Thome and Manny Rameriz raking it at Jacobs Field, the Rays didn't even exist and the Reds were declining from the Barry Larkin and Reggie Sanders years at Riverfront Stadium. Now they are catching the attention of fans with the likes of new Indians stars Justin Masterson, Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera, Rays "seasoned" vets Evan Longoria, James Shields and David Price and the Reds hot young stars of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto. To the regular fan these names may ring a faint bell but certainly aren't the names of Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Felix Hernandez and Mariano Rivera. So how do lesser name guys make the difference? Drafting, scouting, patience and picking the right positions and character guys to base your team around.

Lets examine the Reds for this idea since they are the best example of perennial doormat to contender in the last 2 years. First, Cincinnati made the right choice in tabbing a great manager (Dusty Baker) and a good General Manager (Walt Jocketty) to oversee the operations of the team. Before the new management though, they had made a few great draft choices like: 2002 2nd round they took 2010 NL MVP Joey Votto, 2005 1st round they took starting RF Jay Bruce, 2006 1st round they took starting CF Drew Stubbs, as well as Homer Bailey and Mike Leake (1st rounders who have been Good-to-Okay when healthy as starting pitchers). Then they made a few important trades, such as getting 2B Brandon Phillips in 2006 from the Nationals for Pitcher Jeff Stevens (what a lopsided trade!), and veteran 3B Scott Rolen from the Blue Jays for Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart. They also dealt for a top-tier starter in Edison Volquez from the Rangers, and musically talented pitcher Bronson Arroyo from the Red Sox for Willy Mo Pena (what a throwback name, that dude could hit a fastball a mile but could never hit a curve). And to complete the trifecta of assembling a team, they signed a lights out closer to a 4 year deal in Francisco Cordero, as well as veteran infielders like Edgar Renteria and Miguel Cairo to smaller contracts, and a flame-throwing Cuban Defector to be their setup man and heir apparent to Cordero, in Aroldis Chapman. 

Most people say pitching and defense wins championships but before you win a title, you got to get out of the basement and into relevancy. The Reds did this with a pure offense, an above average defense, a capable to above average starting pitching rotation and a great bullpen. Let's go around the horn of their everyday lineup to get a close look of why the Reds are successful. First, at first is Votto who is a start in the making and a great guy (which is not to be overlooked, character DOES matter), Phillips is a great hitter and a huge publicity magnet with his twitter skills, Renteria/Janish are okay defensively but will not hurt you on either side of the plate, Rolen is excellent when healthy, Jonny Gomes/Chris Heisey is a great platoon in Left to give power and speed respectively, Stubbs is a young stud who could contend for a 30-30 year in Center and  Bruce in Right is the wildcard, who could be a perennial all-star in the making. Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan are a good offensive backstop and can handle Cueto, Volquez, Leake, Arroyo, Travis Wood and Homer Bailey (when he's healthy) pretty well that they aren't run all over against. While the great bullpen I had credited them with is a little weak right now with Chapman out, it still is bolstered my Cordero who is 14/16 in save situations with Logan Ondrusek and Bill Bray leading the middle relief that is 15th in the MLB but rising.

So top to bottom this is a roster than was overhauled and rebuilt from an aging and failing team to a powerhouse in the NL Central for years to come. Word of advice to the Astros, Cubs, Padres and A's... replicate and flourish, you don't need big name stars like Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, or Hideki Matsui to help your offense, it's the little guys who turn into the big guys that will make you a winning team in a few years, not overnight like most people want. 

I'd love to hear you reactions and thoughts... comment away! I dare you to tell me I'm wrong!

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